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Authenticate and Elevate

Authenticate and Elevate

This is the second edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with Altan Insights on the key events and factors shaping the modern music memorabilia market. Altan Insights provides data and quantitative analysis to help collectors and businesses navigate the emerging collectible asset markets.

As the dollar values go up, the stakes for authentication get higher. And as standards of authentication grow stronger, the dollar values tend to go up. 

 

This chicken-or-the-egg conundrum is a driving force behind the maturation and increased sophistication of various collectible categories. Often though, it is the egg, or in this case, more rigorous standards of authentication, that takes a collectible asset class into a new price tier. 

 

Love it or hate it, card grading played an immense role in elevating card collecting from a pure children’s hobby to a booming marketplace. While card authentication and grading is certainly important, ultimately, what’s authenticated is whether or not cardboard is indeed a certain type of cardboard, printed in the right factory by the right manufacturer. We don’t mean to minimize those stakes, but in comparison to verifying whether an item was actually worn or held by a person of influence, it starts to sound quite trivial.

 

The value of a memorabilia item – whether in sports, music, film, or history – is based in its interaction with the person. Without that interaction being verifiable, the value is severely impaired. As you quickly learn by studying memorabilia markets, verifiability – at least to date – is not a binary quality. It lives on more of a spectrum, with some sources of authentication offering greater credibility than others, and others offering greater credibility than no authentication at all.

 

For the longest time in most memorabilia categories, effectively the only standard of authenticity was LOA or COAs. An LOA (letter of authenticity) is a written assertion accompanying a piece of memorabilia, affirming that the memorabilia was indeed used or worn by the person of interest. 

 

It might come from the person themselves, a manager, a family member, or someone else somehow affiliated with the person or the moment. It might already be apparent: credibility of the signer declines quickly as degrees of separation from the person themselves increase. Unfortunately, it’s more often the case that an LOA comes from some tangential party rather than the actual person, weakening the strength of the authentication to begin with. 

 

Then, there’s the fact that this piece of paper is in no way inextricably linked to the item itself. There are typically no incontrovertible identifiers tying the item to the LOA. Put more simply, there’s plenty of room for shenanigans. The risk only increases the further away in the chain of provenance the item gets from that initial LOA signer.

 

As prices for memorabilia swelled into six-figures throughout the 1990s, the increasingly lucrative market was in desperate need of better authentication protocols. Demand for concert-played guitars and game-worn jerseys became so significant that federal agencies started policing as much as their budgets would allow. Their work, while limited in both scope and scale, provided some of the first data-backed estimates on just how fraudulent the memorabilia sector was. Take for example, an FBI report released in the late 1990s that estimated between 50% – 60% of all memorabilia sold across secondary markets was, in fact, fake. 

 

Let’s use sports as an example to understand how authentication has evolved. The use of LOAs and COAs was common, but then specialists emerged to provide more rigor around evaluation of an item’s use. MEARS is a well known provider in this space, examining an item to see if it matches the material that would’ve been used by a player or team at that specific point and evaluating it for characteristics that exhibit game use. Generally, where these evaluations fall short is pinpointing specifically the games in which a jersey was worn or a bat used, unless that information is highly verifiable via provenance. In terms of visual confirmation, though, it’s somewhat limited.

 

Enter photomatching. Using high-resolution images – typically from a reputed provider like Getty Images – a photomatching service will deeply examine the material worn by a player in a specific game and compare that to the material in hand. They’re looking at extremely intricate details like thread placement, mesh hole patterns, blemishes, and markings to conclusively determine that the piece of memorabilia is the very same one worn or used in the photo. The proliferation and acceptance of these services has recently pushed the sports memorabilia market to new heights. 

 

In 2022, the top 25 game-worn or used sports memorabilia auction sales were up an astonishing 118% over 2021. 

 

A big factor in that rise? The ascendancy of photo-matched material. Of those top 25 items sold in 2022, 19 were advertised as being photomatched. This meant a far greater number of jerseys and uniforms reaching new heights than in years prior. In fact, just one year before, the difference in results was stark.

 

Of those top 25 items in 2021, only 11 of them were advertised as being photomatched. Absent a greater volume of high-quality photomatched material, it was items like vintage, game-used bats that took up a significant swath of the rankings. This is not surprising, as those items also feature a well-known and well-regarded authentication standard from PSA/DNA. Absent stronger authentication, seemingly high-quality items like a Larry Bird rookie  jersey and a Kobe Bryant rookie sneakers find themselves outside of the top 25, relying on MEARS authentication or provenance alone.

 

While it’s difficult to pinpoint perfectly apples-to-apples comparisons, here’s an illustrative example of the difference in results for rigorously and less rigorously authenticated material. In June of 2022, a photomatched, signed, and inscribed 1998 Michael Jordan jersey sold for $540,000. Three months later, a signed game-worn jersey from the same season with robust signature authentication but no photomatching sold for just $74,400.

 

The raising of the bar isn’t exclusive to sports. At this year’s Propstore Entertainment Memorabilia Live Auction, despite there being 20% fewer lots than last year overall, 94 lots featured “screen-match” in their title versus just 33 in 2022. That event featured significantly more depth of strong results than the year prior.

 

The point here isn’t to exalt photomatch or screenmatch authentication as the one and only viable method, but rather to show how a market can take to new levels when a more stringent standard is applied. Music memorabilia is certainly a category in need of greater stringency.

 

To date, it’s been host to a preponderance of LOA-based authenticity, with a smattering of amateur photomatching. There is no clear standard that has elevated the space, leaving most items to trade a lot like that LOA-based Jordan jersey: money left on the table. Worse, provenance is often murky, further complicating things. 

 

The increased circulation and sales volume through the 20th century has only muddied the waters for those committed to improving the integrity of these large markets. If more than half of all music memorabilia sold in the 20th century was fake as the FBI report suggested, how can auction house provenance be trusted as a primary source of authentication? In the 2010s, PSA/DNA released shocking estimates that only 6% of all autographed Beatles memorabilia sent to the company is actually authentic while more than 75% of all Elvis signatures submitted were forged.

 

Today, multiple Kurt Cobain-used guitars have sold for seven-figures, but that market was born from humble beginnings. As the music memorabilia market – and the market for these rare and prized strings – materialized in the early 2000s and 2010s, a greater number of collectible Cobain guitars took to the auction block. One such example emerged in 2007 when a 1953 Martin Acoustic appeared on the block at a major auction house. The mid-century guitar was said to be Cobain’s first Martin D-18, which would become his preferred acoustic brand throughout the 1990s. The auction lot description mentioned that Cobain’s then girlfriend, Mary Lou Lord, had sold the guitar to a collector, and its authenticity was backed by a grainy color photo of Cobain playing the guitar. 

 

What should have been a breakout sale was shrouded in unanswered questions. For starters, Mary Lou Lord stated that she had gifted the real original D-18 to Cobain before sharing it with other artists after his tragic death in 1994. Lord also stated that the guitar was not actually sold but instead donated to the Martin Museum. Additionally, the grainy photographs showed differences in the guitar’s features and wear. Worse, in the photo, Cobain is holding the guitar left-handed, but it’s strung right-handed. Collectors clearly had their concerns, and the guitar only sold for $29,875 at a time when expectations would have valued the memorabilia in excess of $80,000.

 

Anecdotes like this one had become all too commonplace in the industry. After years of a ‘wild west’ market, collectors now called for substantial evidence to support claims made by sellers, and without it, prices would hit a ceiling. 

 

It’s only when an item is able to be verifiably “placed” on the celebrity, athlete, or performer that a greater number of bidders have a greater amount of confidence to engage. Nobody wants to spend five-figures on a Michael Jackson glove only to be left wondering if they were duped by a Smooth Criminal. You’d have to look at the Man in the Mirror after a decision like that.

Benefits of Collecting

Benefits of Collecting

music memorabilia & the Benefits of Collecting

Music memorabilia has captivated fans for decades with its profound cultural and historical significance. Surprisingly, this asset class often remains overlooked by investors, despite recent events that have showcased the tremendous potential within the collectibles industry.

In this post, we’ll explore the benefits of diving into the world of music memorabilia, whether you’re an enthusiastic novice or a seasoned investor. From its potential as an alternative investment and store of value, to its pivotal role in safeguarding an artist’s legacy, let’s uncover some of the treasures in this compelling realm.

MUSIC MEMORABILIA AS AN INVESTMENT

In recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in the interest surrounding music memorabilia.

This rise in popularity can be attributed, in part, to the consistent appreciation of value that music memorabilia has demonstrated over time. While traditional investments like stocks and real estate undoubtedly have their merits, collectibles, particularly in the realm of music, establish a profound connection to something deeply personal and meaningful for their owner. Not only do these treasures hold sentimental value, but they also have the potential to appreciate financially as time goes by. As a unique and finite asset, investing in music memorabilia can provide a hedge against inflation. As time progresses, the rarity of these coveted items only increases, making them increasingly sought after by collectors and enthusiasts alike.

Elvis’ 1942 Martin D-18 guitar — which he owned from 1954 to 1956 was sold for $1.32 million in 2016. The guitar was played by Presley during his early career, and it is considered to be one of the most iconic instruments in rock and roll history.
Bob Dylan’s original lyrics for “Like a Rolling Stone” were sold for $2.045 million in 2014 . The lyrics were written in pencil on four sheets of notebook paper, and they are considered to be one of the most important pieces of music manuscript in history.

MUSIC MEMORABILIA AS PARTICIPATION IN AN ARTIST’S LEGACY

One of the most remarkable aspects of collecting music memorabilia is the opportunity it provides to actively partake in an artist’s enduring legacy. By owning a piece of an artist’s history, you become part of their story and contribute to preserving their influence for generations to come. 

Imagine showcasing an autographed poster from a legendary concert or owning a wardrobe item worn during an iconic performance. These artifacts not only evoke memories but also allow you to share in the magic that made an artist’s music resonate with millions.

Michael Jackson’s iconic crystal glove, represents Jackson’s indelible mark on music and pop culture.
Owning a signed item from The Beatles is owning a piece of rock and roll history and can be a very powerful and emotional experience. 

As these artists continue to create music and solidify their legacies, the demand for items associated with them can soar, subsequently driving up their value in the secondary market.

If you’re a fan of a musician who has been steadily building a following over the years and is now starting to gain mainstream recognition. You might consider investing in items related to that musician now, while they’re still relatively under the radar, with the hope that their success will continue to grow ultimately leading to an increase in the value of those items over time.

Of course, there’s always an inherent degree of risk involved in any investment, and the music industry is no exception. There’s no guarantee that an artist will continue to be successful, and even if they do, there’s no certainty that the items you collect will increase in value. Building a diverse collection that includes items from a variety of artists and genres can help mitigate the risk of any one item or artist falling short of expectations.

Fortunately, the market for music memorabilia is experiencing rapid growth, presenting numerous promising opportunities.

So, if you’re a music enthusiast seeking a means to invest your funds or simply looking to express your love for your favorite artists, delving into the world of music memorabilia is a great option.

With so many benefits to offer, there is no reason not to kick start your collection today.

WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO START YOUR COLLECTION

It is never too late to begin your journey. Remember, today’s legends were once emerging artists too. While some collectors may focus on rare or vintage items, there’s a particularly rewarding aspect to consider: investing in memorabilia from musicians who are still alive and steadily paving their way towards legendary status.

Rock and Roll never forgets

Rock and Roll never forgets

This is the first edition of a multi-part blog series produced in partnership with Altan Insights on the key events and factors shaping the modern music memorabilia market. Altan Insights provides data and quantitative analysis to help collectors and businesses navigate the emerging collectible asset markets.

The music hasn’t stopped in rock and roll memorabilia markets

In fact, you could argue we’re in the middle of a pretty epic guitar solo. It might not be the kind that makes Wayne Campbell and Garth Algar drop to their knees and shout “we’re not worthy!”, but there’s still music being made.

Back in early May, Sotheby’s conducted the massive $3.9 million sale of Eddie Van Halen’s guitar from the Hot For Teacher music video. Trophy asset sales are not at all uncommon across categories in 2023, so while this was a standout result, it didn’t necessarily say a lot about the rest of the music memorabilia market.

May’s large Music Icons event at Julien’s Auctions, though, provided a broader indicator. While headline numbers were down, a look beneath the surface suggests that despite missing a few notes, the market is still humming.

The event generated $4.9 million in total sales volume. That’s a far cry from 2022’s $13.7 million. The gap, though, isn’t as large as it seems at face value. For example, the 2022 event featured the $4.7 million Smells Like Teen Spirit Kurt Cobain guitar, as well as a massive consignment of memorabilia from Rush’s Alex Lifeson (more than $3.5 million in sales).  Backing those out reduces the total to $5.4 million. There are episodic events and outliers in almost any auction, so completely discounting those unique sales is perhaps not appropriate, but it still hints at normalized sales totals that are holding up better than they seem in 2023.

Notably, the 2023 Music Icons total was up 6% over 2021’s tally of $4.6 million. There aren’t many collecting categories where that would be the case, given how red hot speculation was in the spring of 2021.

Some of the sales highlights from the event:

  • Nearly $1.7 million in guitar sales alone, led by Kurt Cobain’s smashed guitar from Nirvana’s “Nevermind” era. The guitar was estimated to sell for between $60,000 and $80,000, but ultimately fetched $596,900. 
  • $955k in John Lennon memorabilia sales, including $676k consigned directly from Julian Lennon. The lots included Beatles Gold Records, handwritten lyrics, sketches, instruments, animation cels and more.
  • $279k in Michael Jackson memorabilia, consisting primarily of stage-worn clothing.

What types of items comprise these music memorabilia sales? If you look at the top 100 sales, here’s the breakdown:

  • 31 awards or gold records
  • 31 instruments or pieces of musical equipment
  • 18 artist-worn or owned pieces of clothing or accessories
  • 6 handwritten lyrics, documents, or sketches
  • 2 original records
  • 2 concert or album posters
  • 10 miscellaneous items (how does one categorize John Lennon’s Honda Monkey Bike?!)

When we analyze some of the specific sales in greater depth, we get a better sense of how the market is evolving over time. While this event had a lot of fresh-to-market material, we can still find trends. Let’s take some repeat sales for example. These are items that have sold at Julien’s previously and returned to auction this past weekend.
  • Back in 2015, a pair of drumsticks custom-made for Ringo Starr and used by the legend sold for $3,250. Those sticks returned eight years later to a vastly higher price of $22,100 (against an estimate of $2,000 – $4,000).
  • From the OG teenage sensation (The Beatles) to a newer edition (One Direction), an acoustic guitar believed to be Niall Horan’s very first used in lessons last sold in 2015 for $6,875. It nearly doubled in value, reaching a $12,700 price at this weekend’s event.
  • Elvis Presley’s 14K gold Crucifix ring notched a price of $3,200 at last year’s event. Whether that sale was consummated or not is unclear, but the ring was up for grabs again this year, and this time the price was much steeper at $9,100.
    There are also data points that don’t reflect a precise repeat sale, but still give us a feel for price action.

    • Back in 2016, when Abbey Road Studio Two was under construction, 210 bricks were removed, cleaned, restored, and placed in a presentation box. Number 15/210 sold back in 2020 for $3,520. At the recent sale, number 16/210 was up for bidding, and with an estimate of $300-400, it sold for $11,700.
    • Olivia Newton John cleaned up at the American Music Awards in the mid 1970s. Back in 2019, the 1974 and 1975 awards for “Favorite Pop Female Vocalist” sold for $10,240 and $8,960 respectively. This weekend, the 1974 and 1975 awards for “Favorite Country Female Vocalist” sold for $13,000 and $15,875. 
    • An Eddie Van Halen signed and stage-played 2004 Charvel sold for $114,300. Stage-used and signed Charvels have more commonly occupied the $40-60k range in recent years, so it appears there was a post-Sotheby’s sale bump.
    Music memorabilia is not an emerging category, but it does seem it’s now beginning to enjoy a more proportionate share of interest and demand than it had in years past.

    You’ll notice, though, that – Niall excluded – much of the action is concentrated firmly in Boomer territory, with some movement across the border into Gen X.  If you look at the taop 100 sales, the music of all the artists featured remains quite popular for the most part. But, the popularity of only two individuals amongst the top 100 sales actually originated after the turn of the millennium: Niall Horan and Amy Winehouse. That’s it. 

    Or look at the various awards sold. Just two of them date to award shows that took place after the year 2000: VMAs for the Beastie Boys in 2005 and for Moby and Gwen Stefani in 2001. “Ch-check It Out” and “South Side” are great songs respectively, but you might not expect them to motivate younger bidders.

    The concentration in the music of older and middle-aged generations is of course logical given the stage of life those generations are in, but it will be incumbent upon auction houses and marketplaces to reach younger fans and consumers to forge more active markets for “active” artists.

    If and when they do, Niall’s first acoustic guitar might be heading in only One Direction: up.

    Authentication vs Grading

    Authentication vs Grading

    Whether you’re a fan who’s exploring the realm of collectibles, or a seasoned collector, it is important to understand that when it comes to memorabilia, two crucial aspects are usually considered: Authentication and Grading. Understanding why both are important and how they are different is a fundamental skill.

    AUTHENTICATION

    Authentication is the process of verifying the authenticity or genuineness of an item. In the music collectibles market, where counterfeit items are known to circulate and proliferate, it is vital to authenticate every piece you consider adding to your collection. It involves examining various aspects of the item, such as its physical characteristics, materials used, signatures, markings, and any accompanying documentation or provenance. The goal of authentication is to determine whether the item is indeed what it claims to be. Experts or third-party authentication services are typically involved in this process, utilizing their knowledge, and access to reference materials and databases to make an informed judgment or in most cases, a guess. In response to the numerous cases of fraudulent behavior, new authentication standards have been introduced that combine various layers of technology and human observation to create authentication processes that are nearly impossible to replicate.

    GRADING

    Grading focuses on assessing the condition or quality of an item. Grading is often associated with collectibles like trading cards, coins, stamps, or comic books, where there are often a high number of the same item produced and therefore the item’s physical state significantly impacts its value and desirability. Graders evaluate various factors such as the item’s overall condition, potential damage, wear and tear, completeness, and any flaws or imperfections to assign them a grade (based on a standardized scale) that reflects their condition. Grading allows collectors to understand the condition of their memorabilia and aids in determining its value and desirability. While traditional authentication validates the provenance of an item to a certain level, grading provides an objective assessment of an item’s physical state regardless of its history. Both processes can provide valuable information to collectors and potential buyers, helping them make informed decisions about the value and legitimacy of what they own or what they are looking to purchase.
    It’s worth noting that different types of memorabilia may have specific authentication and grading procedures associated with them, and as a collector you should avoid basing your authentication solely on opinions or estimates, which can be subjective and lack the necessary expertise. By establishing the item’s provenance and verifying its connection to a specific artist or event, legitimate authentication offers peace of mind that you own a genuine piece of [music] history that will maintain value.
    The Realest is the first dedicated marketplace and authentication standard for music memorabilia. Sourcing items directly from artists and powered by cutting edge authentication technology and blockchain-based provenance, The Realest is making it easier and safer for fans and collectors to own a real piece of music history. Find out more on TheRealest.com